Proposed parliamentary boundary changes for the next General Election mean that Mid Sussex is much more winnable for the Liberal Democrats – the final proposals are out for consultation at https://www.bcereviews.org.uk/ . These take out Conservative leaning East Grinstead and adds Liberal Democrat leaning Hassocks and Hurstpierpoint to the new Mid Sussex Constituency.
This follows on from already finalised proposals to reduce the number of Mid Sussex District Council councillors from 54 to 48 which effectively loses the Conservatives six seats from their majority and makes the next District Council elections in 2023 more interesting. If you are interested in becoming a Liberal Democrat councillor find our more here.
The proposed changes to remove East Grinstead and add Hassocks/Hurstpierpoint makes sense, as the latter have much closer ties to Burgess Hill and Haywards Heath, for example the Brighton mainline and A273 in common. The towns in the south of Mid Sussex shares common links with each other and Brighton, whilst East Grinstead has always been an outlier to the area looking more to surrounding areas of Kent and East Sussex with distinctly separate transport links.
The proposals mean Ardingly & Balcombe and High Weald wards are also put into the new East Grinstead & Uckfield constituency, as well as East Grinstead itself, which is also logical as they are less linked to the southern part of Mid Sussex and their rural nature make them more akin to much of that new constituency.
The projected result below is using 2019 voting figures shows a Conservative vote of just 35% – and this is before taking account of the increasing success at local government level of the Liberal Democrats. Currently there are 16 Liberal Democrats on either Mid Sussex District Council or West Sussex County Council, and the party also controls Burgess Hill Town Council. There are no Labour councillors at any level in the seat, and the new constituency would be winnable for the Liberal Democrats if enough Labour supporters tactically back the Liberal Democrats to defeat MP Mims Davies.
See full figures at Electoral Calculus:
Mid Sussex Constituency (new boundary result using 2019 data):
| Party | Predicted Votes | Predicted Share | Actual 2019 (old boundary) |
| CON | 18,716 | 35.0% | 53.3% |
| LIB | 14,517 | 27.2% | 24.3% |
| LAB | 14,022 | 26.3% | 17.9% |
| Green | 3,851 | 7.2% | 3.6% |
| OTH | 2,002 | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Reform | 303 | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| CON Majority | 4,199 | 7.9% | 29.0% |
Data from Electoral Calculus